Monday, September 24, 2012

Peter Turchin's 2020 Prediction

Peter Turchin (the would-be real-life Hari Seldon) has predicted, based on his theories of 50-year historical cyces, that 2020 will be an unstable and turbulent year for the U.S. (Review of his work War and Peace and War here.)

It will be very interesting to see if any anarchists or fundamentalists or other agitators 8 years from now cite Turchin as the reason they chose to make their move now. After all, one of Hari Sedon's rules for making psychohistorical predictions was that the population under observation could not know the predictions, lest they alter their behavior!

If you think this is unlikely, you may want to consider that there have already been people (you may recognize this guy and this guy too, and maybe even this one) influenced by Hari Seldon's theories, when they were still fiction.

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