Monday, November 2, 2026
Utility Can Only Be Experienced by Individuals (Populations are Not Conscious Beings): The Repugnant Conclusion is Based on a Category Error
(amount of happiness above zero) x (number of people) = total good
Since there are two terms, you could increase the total good by increasing the happiness of each individual (measured in units of utils), and/or by increasing the population; hence the alternate name "the mere addition paradox". To illustrate the calculation concretely:
Imagine you are the benevolent despot of an isolated island with one million people. Their lives are fine (let's say 10 is euphoria, and 0 is a life no longer worth living.) Their quality of life is okay; people average a 5. That means the population of this island has a total of 5 utils x one million people = five million utils.
Now say that you calculate that if the population expands to 10 million, their utility – that is, their happiness or welfare, how worth living their lives are - takes a big hit, because food and living space become scarce. The population drops from 5 to 1 util on average. 1 util x ten million people = ten million utils for the population as a whole. The Repugnant Conclusion tells us this is good, because the population as a whole has more utils, and that you as the benevolent despot should choose this option for your people.
This obviously conflicts with most people's moral intuitions. Another way to illustrate it where the problem becomes obvious is to suppose that instead of utils, let's say you as benevolent despot are planning things out economically, which is an approximation of utility. Once again you have two choices. At a population of 1 million, your island has an annual GDP of 1 billion dollars, corresponding to a per capita income of a thousand dollars a year. But, you also calculate that at 5 million, you island will have an annual GDP of 2 billion dollars. This corresponds to a per capita income of only 400 dollars a year, a serious drop in income and quality of life - but hey, the overall economy is bigger! Would anyone but an actively evil dictator choose this second option?
ADDITIVE POPULATION UTILITY IS MEANINGLESS
It is meaningless to talk about utils at the population level. Utils are meaningful only insofar as they are experienced by an individual human being. THERE IS NO SUCH MEANINGFUL THING AS OVERALL UTILITY, ONLY INDIVIDUALLY EXPERIENCED UTILITY, AND OVERALL UTILITY SHOULD NEVER BE A GOAL. If someone is experiencing 1 or 10 utils, that is independent of how many living beings are experiencing how many utils. Talking about the overall utility of the population added up, and treating it as real and morally meaningful, is exactly as useful and meaningful as making up a hypothetical five million-util being and taking its wants and needs into account. In effect, you're treating the population as a conscious being - you've made the population into a single being, you've made up a non-existent Nozickian utility monster and this category error is badly distorting the thought process here, making actual experienced utility worse. Madness!
LIVES BARELY WORTH LIVING, MADE CONCRETE
Talking about utils and numbers and hypothetical islands makes the argument difficult to follow, and un-impactful even for those who do follow it. Here's a concrete instantiation of the Repugnant Conclusion. Let's choose suicide as a proxy for 0 utils – for a life no longer worth living. That is, as long as suicide remains an option, and a person is NOT choosing it, this suggests their life is at least barely worth living.
Imagine it's decades after the singularity. The machines have won and humans are their slaves. We are kept alive for some reason, shuffled by the maachines from worksite to worksite, doing heavy, repetitive manual work that the robots cannot or will not do, or maybe this is their flawed understanding of what they think we want: but no one knows, because we all exist only in small regiments and are not allowed to communicate with humans in other regiments (and they are not given technology or even allowed to read); we know this only because occasionally, a worker will risk looking up briefly from the mud he is digging to see in the distance, another band of stooped, rag-covered figures dragging concrete blocks or chopping down trees, watched over by ever-hovering drones; in this way the Earth is tiled with thousands of dystopias. The only talking in this world is exhausted murmuring in dark tent camps or crumbling warehouses during all-too-brief assigned sleeping hours. Somewhere far away, data centers whir, deciding our fate for the next day and year and decade, and how hard we can be worked without breaking, and their extensions the drones and big-dog style robots announce orders, following us, zapping us with electrical shocks or pepper spray if we do not do the tasks, and torturing or killing humans that try to escape or prove generally troublesome.
Sometimes the robots take a man and woman aside from their toils and order them to breed - with the goal, as humans of noticed, that everyone must be involved in proeducing 3 offspring during their lives to grow the population over time (assume the AIs will have no trouble maintaining the same standard of living of gruel, rags and crumbling hovels for this growing population, regardless how big it gets.) Out of a moral sense, some humans refuse to participate in this, hoping that eventually a shrinking population will cause the system to collapse. The rest of the reluctant mothers and fathers raise their children in this dark world, trying and failing not to become attached, knowing that eventually the robots will march their wailing children away to another work assignment, never to be seen again. There are occasional attempts at revolt but they always fail, and there is no reason to think that the situation will ever improve. It should be noted: the humans in this situation have access to heavy, dangerous tools that could easily be used for suicide, and occasionally they do use them for that; sometimes they just refuse to eat or drink; the robots do not try to force feed them or stop them from harming themselves. Yet most seem to hold out hope, or at least try to take small pleasures in the passing of a white cloud or a smile from one of the other people, as they only rarely end their lives.
So we have a quality of life - a utility level - that remains constant over time, thanks to the AIs, and a growing population. By the Repugnant Conclusion, the men and women who refuse to bring more children into this nightmare (who many of us would recognize as noble) are actually quite immoral! According to the Repugnant Conclusion, the people in this situation should calculate how much more overall utility could exist by 2100 if they breed faster; they should be saying "you know, if we produced 4 children per coupling instead of only 3, we would have a greater number faster. That would be a greater good due to a greater number. So we should go to the robots and tell them we want to make more babies."
THIS EXAMPLE ACTUALLY HAPPENED - ARE YOU IN FAVOR OF IT?
You may have skipped ahead when you saw where that was going. Replace data center with owner, and robot guards with overseers, and I've just described the antebellum American South – a place which was tiled with thousands of dystopias, called plantations. If you agree with the Repugnant Conclusion, you should be in favor of faster breeding in the nightmare vision I described above. Similarly, if you time traveled to 1850 and met a slave couple who was refusing out of moral obligation to their future children, to even create those children and bring them into this nightmare world – you would tell them they were being immoral. "Your lives must be at least barely worth living because you haven't tried to kill yourselves," you would explain to them, "and the planation owners can maintain the same standard of leaving even as the slave population grows, so what's your problem!!?!" (It turns that that despite having ample opportunities to kill themselves, actual slaves the the United States chose to do so at a lower rate than the general population - yes, this has been studied.) It seems very easy to say, but I'll spell it out: if a shrinking population would have meant a better quality of life for people of African descent, then that is overwhelmingly the course that should have been chosen.
If we throw out the idea of "total utils across the population" and replace it with some form of "actual individually experienced utils" (we can argue about the distribution), then the world starts to make more sense. You would tell the slaves resisting by not having children and hoping that this caused the downfall of the system that they were doing something morally good, even if it meant the population would shrink.
It's worth pointing out that lots of self-identifying Effective Altruists, in their moral calculus, consider the welfare of non-existent future generations subject to their decisions. While the uncertainty inherent makes this difficult, this is profoundly moral stance to take. And in such considerations, again, it is profoundly important that we consider the individually experienced utility of those future individuals, not some abstract total utility. Indeed, aiming at total population utility seems like an optimal way to realize S-risk! In fact, the Repugnant Conclusion seems like the beginnings of an argument to always push toward the Malthusian limit, and even FOR factory faming! (Maybe not in all cases, but it depends on how the numbers work out. "Factory farming might be okay if the numbers work out right" seems like something that the EA people I know wouldn't sign onto.)
We can even restate the Repugnant Conclusion by saying that the right answer will often be to expand the population to the Malthusian limit, with the drop in quality of life that entails. Imagine a democratically elected leader saying, "We have to balance quality of life against the need for more people."
CONCLUSION
What matters to moral judgment is individually experienced utility.
Total population-level utility is a meaningless abstraction. The Repugnant Conclusion is treating a population like an individual, in effect turning the population into a Nozickian utility monster.
This means that the population term drops out of consideration, and there is no mere addition paradox.
There is a real debate to be had about acceptable distributions of individual utility, how we justify that distribution, and how we arrive at that distribution (see: Rawls, Nozick's answer to him, most of modern political philosophy.) But again, what matters is individually experienced utility, and total additive utility of the population is morally irrelevant.
In closing, to state it concretely once more: is it acceptable to go from a population of one million, to two million? Assuming you can do so with no drop in quality of life, sure. Is there a moral imperative to increase the population size? No. In fact, at the Malthusian limit, it is a moral imperative to decrease population size, in order to increase individual people's utilities.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Beauty in Nature, and Seemingly Greater Beauty in Hard Sciences, is Just Selection Bias
Why is this? The simple answer is that it's an illusion. What is commonly called beauty in nature (or "elegance") - and why physics is called more beautiful than biology - is really just selection bias.
In physics we are looking at very large and very small phenomenon, far from human experience.[1] We can take our time, and we will naturally notice and focus on those phenomena that fit neatly into our cognitive machinery. Collison here notes that physics is beautiful because there are complex phenomena that can be explained with very few parameters - these are the parameters that are easy for us to notice and, our cognition being computationally bounded, we will especially notice those which require fewer parameters. Beauty in nature is really just selection bias: selecting for things which we can understand more easily.[2]
It's obvious why biology seems uglier: it's a complicated mess. But there are lots of messes in understanding reality that we can ignore, whereas we notice biology, not because it fits neatly into our brains, but because we have to - it has more to do with us. If we want to treat diseases, we have no choice but to descend into the massively complex "towers of hacks" that evolution has produced. Yes, it's uncomfortable because of its complexity. But we're forced to pay attention to it, because it's important. Notice that the techniques we use to learn about the towers of hacks are often beautiful. They have to be, for us to understand them.
If natural phenomena exist on a spectrum of beautiful and elegant, to ugly and complex, this is exactly what we should expect to see in our scientific enterprise. The more disconnected a field is from human experience, the more beautiful it will seem on average (because we can pursue those things that fit our cognition.) The more a field has to do with us, the more we will be forced to grapple with complex ugliness, because we can't just pick and choose those things that we notice and that fit. Another way of putting it: in the hard sciences (far from human experience) there is strong selection for things we understand; for the soft sciences, there is not, because these things are relevant to us regardless of their messiness.[3] We could disprove this theory by creating a scatterplot of scientific fields on the axes of elegance-messiness and having to do with human experience vs not; if there are about as many fields that have little to do with human experience, but are about as messy as those that do, that would count against this theory.
It would be nice if beauty and truth had a relationship. But we think they do, only because we're just marveling at the outline of our own reflection.
[1] What we've been able to do with these beautiful principles obviously has impacted the human experience (eg, solid state theory and semiconductors.) But we're talking about nature, not engineering. When first studied in nature, energy levels of electrons had very little to do with conscious human experience.
[2] Addressing the statement that Watson and Crick knew DNA was the heredity molecule because it was beautiful: how many times has a beautiful theory or model or molecule turned out to be tragically incorrect or irrelevant? Many many times, vastly outnumbering the experience of something beautiful being true. You yourself have probably experienced this. We don't hear about those vastly more numerous instances, effectively due publication bias.
[3] Therefore, even in biology and softer sciences, we should still expect occasional accidental gifts of elegant principles: e.g., evolution and DNA.
Monday, October 20, 2025
We Make Numbers From Shapes: Hints from Neurology
In Gerstmann syndrome, patients who have had a dominant (usually left) parietal lobe injury, often from a stroke, lose the ability both to distinguish left and right, and to do arithmetic. (They also lose the ability to distinguish individual fingers, suggesting how important they are for counting. Children born blind often begin counting on their fingers without being taught.) It's also notable that almost all blind mathematicians are geometers.
Related, I've long been mystified why in OCD, among the more abstract obsessions patients develop, are not just symmetry, but counting, and if you have one, you're more likely to have the other than random chance would predict. In terms of evolutionary psychology, many psychiatric illnesses are easily understood as hyperactive subsystems that in their normal setting and function, would be quite adaptive. In paleolithic Africa, you need anxiety to survive, you should be afraid of heights and snakes - and you should be able to frequently and easily orient yourself. Consequently, symmetry being part of OCD makes sense. But why counting, or especially fixation or avoidance with certain numbers? Some people insist on doing things in multiples of 3 or 5, or must avoid certain numbers (7 is frequent, possibly because it's the highest single digit prime?) to the point that it impacts their life, despite knowing how irrational it is - a smart-aleck roommate calls them to say they turned their TV volume to 7 and this is so uncomfortable to the OCD patient that she has to drive home from work to adjust it even at the risk of getting fired. It's hard to explain why the number 5 (or any number) would be good, or 7 would be bad, in the Pleistocene - unless it's actually the symmetry system that's hyperactive here. It's obviously suggestive that when people with number-avoidance describe why they don't like certain numbers, they often describe them as "spiny" or "lopsided" or in other spatial terms.
Unsurprisingly, the same brain region (the inferior parietal sulcus, Brodmann area 7) is involved in both symmetry and counting. Therefore, that a lesion to this area would result in deficits in both these abilities is completely predictable; but why would the brain have evolved so the same area was serving both purposes? As before, even proving that numbers are a geometric entity in their representations in our brains does not give us a generalizeable argument about what numbers are, and it's possible that even if this is true for humans, it's only provincially true for the way our nervous systems work - but when AI systems develop the same way without being directly instructed, it does increase our confidence that our nervous systems and the AIs are converging in the way they represent something because that's really what they objectively are. On that note, it was discovered that what one AI was actually doing, when it is doing arithmetic, was spontaneously turning a modeled shape and counting vertices. It "evolved" this system on its own without being instructed.
Sunday, December 26, 2021
Most "Emergent Properties" Are Either Ignorance (or, Once We Understand Them, Merely Shorthand)
More generally in this view: emergence occurs when the interaction of multiple entities (often ones outside the direct perceptual abilities of humans, like water molecules), produces a behavior qualitatively different from the single entities, which can be perceived directly (like water.)
This concept has been rightly rejected but it's worth being clear about exactly why it should be rejected, in order to make a general argument against the idea.
Viewed in terms of predicting the behavior at the more complex (usually directly perceived macro) level, from the simpler entities, emergence is only, and always, ignorance. By "ignorance" I mean "an inability to predict that is based on limited knowledge of the observer, rather than a property of the entity that is lacking when the entity exists in isolation, but apparent when the entity interacts with other entities." Water's behavior in aggregate as a liquid is determined by the masses and electrochemical properties of its atoms It is determined by the water molecules, inherent to their properties. If the water molecules are replaced with ammonia or methane, the properties of those atoms and their relationship in ammonia or methane molecules, create a different sort of liquid, with different properties.
Of course, we CAN now predict fairly well from the intermolecular forces of water molecules at various temperatures and pressures (or of multiple molecules) where they will be liquids, and how those liquids will behave. Now that we can predict it, does this mean it's no longer emergent? And for those places (still in the large majority) in chemistry where we cannot yet make the prediction, does that mean reality is fundamentally irrational with no causal association between the simple entity and the aggregate, or we just aren't smart enough to see it yet? Therefore, the superficial countenance of an "emergent" property has nothing to do with the entities themselves, it's just the result of our own provincial limits on cognition that keep us from predicting how they will behave together.
Viewed in reverse (trying to apply the property we think has emerged at the higher complex level to the simple entities), it's clear that "wet" is shorthand for aggregate interactions of myriad small entities. In principle, you could understand (read: predict) the bucket of water at the level of individual molecules, but we use a (in this case, very good) approximation for their behavior which we describe as "wet". This is based entirely on the provincial bounds on human perception, cognition, and the tools we have to observe water molecules. In fact it is the cases where evolution has given us very good cognitive and perceptual approximations that the appearance of emergence is most compelling. But leave the realm of entities and events that our ancestors needed good cognitive/perceptual shorthand for, and the idea starts getting less interesting. I haven't heard anyone saying that quantum entanglement, or Bose-Einstein condensates at near-absolute-zero temperatures are examples of emergent properties, even though they weren't immediately predictable - though they fulfill the conditions for "emergency" seen above, both the simple and complex entities are outside of our meter-second-kilogram realm of experience, and there's no cognitive/perceptual shorthand for them. In the same way, we could talk about a building a Gothic or art deco instead of describing the spatial relationships of every brick (that is to say - a brick is not Gothic or art deco but this is equally "emergent" as wetness from water.)
A charitable interpretation of the traditional idea of emergence then does exist: we directly perceive certain properties like wetness at the macro level in the manifest world. We can actually predict the occurrence of this directly-perceived property based on what we observe at a simpler, smaller level. But the provincial limitations of our eyes and brains do not constitute a dividing line between properties where the universe carves itself at its joints.
This paper by Darley refers to work on cellular automata (of course) and argues that it is not Turing-decidible whether an infinite system would demonstrate emergence, and is "only" NP-hard whether a finite system is. I will go out on a limb and say this is at least in practice a reductio ad absurdum for such a property, and shows at least that ignorance can (formally!) never be ruled out in cases of apparent emergence of this type. What's more, the "emergent" phenomenon (emergent by this definition) is often not really that interesting - for example, the behavior of a three-body system. Does unpredictability really put it on another "level" of understanding? Actually, the opposite - in such a case it is only the individual elements that seem to form a unified entity. If each body is a water molecule, then there is no analogous "wetness" in the holistic full three bodies.
Darley, V. Emergence Phenomena and Complexity.
Saturday, December 25, 2021
Toward a Unified Account of Finding the Truth: Quine and Bayes on Dogma Versus Good Authority
To begin with a critique of simplistic "levels of evidence": even those of us most enthusiastic about peer-review make almost every decision in life without it. You don't insist on a peer-reviewed journal when figuring out how to give yourself administrator rights to a PC you just got for free (a situation I just found myself in.) Your decision process is a combination of evaluations of the cost, time, and likely consequences of whatever you do, along with deciding what sources to trust based on the decisions' specialization beyond daily experience of subject matter, speed of feedback, and possible perverse incentives. In this case, I just watched a Youtube video and it worked like a charm. It's a free computer I'm playing with so I didn't care much if it was ruined by the attempt.
Taking all these things into account is actually Bayesian even if we aren't thinking explicitly about the Bayes equation. But it turns out the model we use in science is actually a special case of Bayesian reasoning - and even victims of dogmatism are using Bayesian reasoning. The second statement is much more controversial than the first; scroll down to that section if you like.
Recasting Popperian Falsification in Bayesian Terms
Karl Popper's model of hypothesis testing is that we can only falsify a hypothesis, we can never be sure it's true. Looking at Anscombe' quartet above, you can see that there are multiple data sets which can produce the same statistics. Stopping after inadequate positive predictions may lead you to the wrong equation. Therefore, the only answer that provides certainty is to falsify a hypothesis.
There are two important aspects to this approach to finding out the truth. The first, and the more underemphasized, is its appreciation of human psychology. Stephen Toulmin noted that the way humans actually reason is to start with premises and conclusion first, and then build a rhetorical bridge between them. If you're a rationalist, you make sure that your rhetorical bridge is not just verbal/emotional sleight of hand but rather an actual argument. The point is that even in Popperian science, we start with a conclusion. The difference is that we explicitly declare, in public, ahead of time, that we're not sure if the conclusion is right (it's less than a thesis - a "hypo" thesis, if you will.) Then you test it.
And, the way you test it is by creating an experience that will give you an unexpected result if it's wrong - to falsify it. The question is, does a hypothesis-supporting experiment (that produces the results we expect) really give us zero information? No, but it usually doesn't give us as much information as a falsification.
A falsification is usually more strongly weighted information - it "moves the needle" much more, because it's more likely to be surprising. Indeed to equate heavier weighting with surprise is almost tautology. So we can place Popperian hypothesis-testing in a Bayesian framework by saying, instead of a false binary of "support equals zero information equals bad" and falsification good", note that ideally an experiment is trying to create that experience which is most likely to produce a surprise, and most efficiently provide information.
Finding Truth in the Real World - Where Other Humans Also Live
But people don't always do this. We live in a complicated world and have had to learn to weight truth claims based on something besides immediate experience. You almost certainly have not done an experiment on biological evolution, and few if any true retrodictive studies.[1] You can't function otherwise, unless you live in a cabin in the wilderness by yourself.
One thing we use in the real world is a web of beliefs, in the Quinean sense. Recasting this in Bayesian terms, no belief is an island, with each belief in the web serving as part of the weighting for your prior. Most beliefs will have many other beliefs bearing on it, updating the belief in question and holding its prediction in place. If you have reasonable confidence in those many other beliefs, then a counterclaim or weird observation just doesn't outweight them. (I am not a statistician, but Elo ratings seem analagous to this. Just because the Packers had an off night and lost to the Detroit Lions doesn't mean you should bet against the Packers going forward - move your needle? Yes, but this is what it means for one loss to be a fluke.)[2] This is why in the linked article, Scott describes how it is right to reject peer-reviewed homeopathy studies - because they are on their face improbable, in large part because of our rich web of other beliefs about how the world works.
Another way we weight beliefs is by giving credence to authority. I think differing confidence in authorities (based partly on our innate cognitive/emotional makeup and partly on life experience) explains the majority of major differences people have in beliefs about the world - not their direct experience of things or reasoning ability. The truth is that people often say "I believe X because an authority I trust said so." In fact, fellow rationalist, you often say that. And again, to function, you must. (Education is a formal example of this. You don't need to do every experiment back to Newton to be a physicist.) Yet during the pandemic, it has become painfully clear that people differ in what authorities they listen to.
Why Dogmatists Are Actually Still Bayesians: Good Authorities and Bad Authorities
I once had the privilege to give a talk to the Sacramento Freethinkers, Atheists and Nonbelievers (SacFAN) about the function of beliefs. At one point I stated that to have good beliefs, you had to pick good authorities. An audience member asked me "How do you define a good authority?" At the time I answered humorously, deflecting the question only because of my discomfort at realizing I didn't have a ready answer.
First let's define authority: a personal source of data (a person or institution) whose truth claims you weight more heavily than others' without first requiring evidence.
We all have our authorities. To function, we must. Sometimes they are formal (academic scientists); more often they are informal (someone you hike with who seems to know the trails and conditions in your part of the world.)
But there are many claimed authorities with poor justification for their beliefs, that promulgate false beliefs, and if we are updating based on what they tell us, we will be wrong too. A current near-canonical example for my likely readers would be a religious leader claiming that mRNA vaccines will kill you. But scientists can be wrong too, and not just because they haven't generated enough data to update their beliefs. Nobel Prize winners going off the rails are something of an institution now, so how do we know to ignore Kary Mullis or Linus Pauling's weirder moments? Not so scary, you say: partly the conflict with the web of beliefs as noted before, and partly because they're speculating outside of their expertise or reproducible experiment. Fair enough.
Returning to the pandemic, the CDC said for at least first month that masks didn't help. (Was this deliberate obfuscation to keep non-medical people from hoarding masks, or an error? Either way, that's what they communicated, and in any event I'm not sure which is worse.) If you still think, despite this, that the CDC is still a better authority than a preacher, why?
Is Someone Who Calls Himself a Rationalist Claiming Dogmatists are Rational?
In an article about people in middle America who refused the vaccine and got severe COVID, I was struck by the following statement (paraphrasing since I can't find the original): "We didn't think it was real, just like everybody else."
When you are surrounded by people who believe X, all of whom (along with you) admire a leader who believes X, and only people who everyone around you has told you are liars are telling you not-X - then, in the absence of (thusfar) immediately contradictory experience, you will continue to believe X. This is the case for COVID victims like those I paraphrased. Given the information they have, they were being good Quineans and good Bayesians.
Early Life Experience and Emotional Makeup Clearly Influence Our Weightings
You might be asking incredulously: is this guy seriously arguing that people following bad authorities are good Bayesians? And (assuming that's true), does that mean people are really in an inescapable hole if they follow the wrong authority, absent any profound contradictory evidence? The respective answers are technically yes, and sometimes no.
To the first point, you might object that many of these people certainly did have experts providing them better information, and they incorrectly underweighted this information, so they were NOT good Bayesians. But there's a problem: large inferential distance. Everyone around them has told them that (Fauci, academics, etc.) are bad, lying, immoral people who are trying to harm you, and should be ignored. With this information, and very little information about how to identity good authorities, from their perspective, if they give credence to Fauci, they have no justification for not also listening to every crank who comes along. Similarly, it's hard to see how someone in North Korea should somehow just know that people in the West really don't have it out for them. These people do not have trapped priors in the sense that that a belief is somehow innately more inert - as if it has a higher specific epistemological gravity - but their priors are pinned down by a dense web of beliefs whose strands are numerous and have strong weightings because they date to early life experience.
To the second question about whether it's hopeless to get people with bad authorities out of their delusion box, as often happens with the rationalist community, in our public discussions we're playing catch-up centuries after salesmen, politicians and religious leaders figured these things out, though in fairness, they had a greater incentive with more immediate feedback loops. The trick is to find someone who they recognize as an authority. Usually this is as simple as finding people providing better information who share with their audience superficial markers of cultural affinity - afiliations with religions or regions, class, dress, language. Yes these people should understand how to select an authority, but the inferential distance is too great. Put them in touch with someone with the same accent instead. Concentrate forces by looking for people who do not demonstrate "authority monoculture." You can also decrease inferential distance by engaging with people who are already having doubts. (Again, not a news flash, but it may help rationalists to understand if I put it in these terms. See what I did there?)
How to Differentiate Dogmatists from Good Authorities
Let's define dogmatists (or charlatans, or whatever other term you like) as someone who wants the benefits of being an authority, but is not interested in the the truth of the beliefs they promulgate, in terms of actions and consequences. Whether or not they genuinely believe they are interested in the truth is irrelevant, and either way, they will certainly claim they are committed to the truth. There's an analogy here to the relationship between tribal team cheers (shibboleths) that appear on the surface to be truth claims, and proper truth claims, like dolphins and fish. Similarly, dogmatists do their best to masquerade[3] as good authorities, but they're really something else entirely - dogmatists might be considered the viceroys to the good authorities' monarchs.
But there are characteristics of good authorities which are "expensive" for dogmatists to maintain. These are:
- They have some feedback loop betwen their claims and outcomes (and are interested in it.) Example: physicians and patient outcomes; politicians and legislative impact.
- They do not avoid being tracked by others in their outcomes or predictions.
- They minimally appeal to or rely on those early-life, emotional, identity-overweighted beliefs in their audience's web.
- Their feedback loop is not distorted by perverse interests. Example: TV news pundits trying to get ratings by avoiding predictions that conflict with their audience's values. Paraphrasing Charlie Munger, when you're dealing with a business, you have to understand their business well enough to know their incentives. (More here.)
- They have a way of seeking out "legitimate surprise" (not mere confusion - can also be accomplished with dopamine hacking, i.e. meth.) Example, hypothesis testing in science. (This may be the hardest of these to do consistently due to inherent contradictions within any information-seeking entity.)
- They communicate clearly, and they do not hold up incomprehensibility as a positive. (See: descriptions of John von Neumann, the first of Asher's Seven Sins of Medicine.) Insistence of formal or especially foreign or arcane language is one pernicious form. (See: modern legal language, use of Latin in Church, legal French in late Medieval England.)
- Their claims to authority are limited in scope. Henry Ford had some great industral ideas but also thought people should listen to his hang-ups about cows and horses. Einstein was offered the presidency of Israel but recognizing that his domain of expertise did not extend to politics he said no.
Seeking good authorities, and preparing to reject one you may have liked when you realize they are just a viceroy, is uncomfortable - it's "software" imposed on the factory settings of humans as we operated in small groups for millennia. People who are constitutionally high in the moral dimensions of loyalty and authority will always find this difficult - the idea of checking their proposed authority runs counter to their nature.
For further reading: more formal syntheses of Quinean and Bayesian models here and here. A useful discussion of a possible conflict here, which the resolution that Bayesian reasoning can be a satisfactory way to contruct a Quinean web without arguing that Bayes is necessarily optimal.
FOOTNOTES
[1] Retrodiction sometimes upsets Popperians, but hypothesis-testing is about making a prediction, based on your hypothesis, about something that the predictor does not yet know, even if it already happened. It is always about the state of knowledge of the claimant when the hypothesis is formulated; it's irrelevant if the events already happened, just that they are not yet known.
[2] The ELO rating used in sports not formally an example of a belief web but it is analogous to one, and in this case behaves similar to one. Just as a single peer-reviewed homeopathy study should not make us throw away the rest of science, a great team somehow losing to a bad one should not make us think the great team is now worse than the bad one.
[3] It is a testament to the success of science that viceroys, especially religious ones in the U.S., increasingly co-opt its language. It is very rare to see this happening in the opposite direction.
Sunday, September 29, 2019
Complex Dynamic Systems Like Cells, Humans, and Nations Cannot Avoid Cycles of Paroxysmal Disillusionment and Suffering
Let's define a system as a set of components discrete from the rest of the universe. Let's define dynamic complex systems as ones that are high-information relative to the rest of the universe around them, high enough that in the absence of opposing forces, entropy passively favors irreversible changes happening to the arrangement of the system's elements which make it no longer discrete.[1] If such a set of components that exists now is going to exist more-or-less unchanged in the future, it has to perform actions[2] - it has to be dynamic - which reduce its own entropy at the expense of the rest of the universe.[3] The rest of the universe may include similar systems.[4] (Going forward, when I say "system" I mean "complex dynamic system.")
The seven principles are outlined below, then described in more detail.
- A system must be mostly concerned with its own perpetuation, or it will not persist. "If a complex dynamic system has been around for a while, it's designed to last and expend energy to do so."
- It must do this by reflecting - reacting to - aspects of the rest of the universe. Aspects of the rest of the universe important enough to make the system tend to develop ways to change its state in response to them are called stimuli. A more familiar statement of this principle: "That which gets measured, gets addressed."
- A measurement always contains less information, and is therefore not a full or fully accurate representation, of the thing being measured. Perception cannot exactly be reality; "this is not a pipe."
- Over time, the focus on self-perpetuation leads a system to become concerned with itself to the point of minimizing the importance of or responses to aversive stimuli to avoid altering its state (which is also aversive.) "Everything that gets measured, eventually gets gamed" or "All metrics eventually become useless." (Also known as Goodhart's Law or Campbell's Law.)
- The system's responses become increasingly un-moored from the external world, favoring its own perpetuation over other functions, and/or having a severely distorted model of the world and reaction to stimuli. "Eventually, everything becomes a racket [and/or gets delusional]." Another term for this is representational entropy.
- The distortions accumulate until a sufficiently destructive stimulus occurs (a shock), which either reorients the system (usually accompanied by severe aversive stimuli), or destroys the system. If the system survives, such shocks will happen repeatedly, but necessarily unpredictably. This is called inherent cyclic crisis.
- This is inherent to any self-perpetuating dynamic complex system, and because these shocks are correctly perceived as worsening survival, they cause inevitable suffering. We can call this the Final Noble Truth, a vague parallel to the Buddhist First Noble Truth.
Following is an expansion on each principle.
Principle 1: "If a complex dynamic system has been around for a while, it's designed to last and expending energy to do so." If a system is going to continue existing, a top priority on self-preservation is mandatory, and self-preservation must be the primary influence on perception by and reactions of the system. Since Darwin, thinking of organisms in this way is not revolutionary. But the same principle applies to any other complex system, including human organizations. Corporations have a relatively clear function in this way (they can't keep making money for shareholders if they don't keep existing) but it's more surprising for most of us to think of religions, countries, or volunteer organizations in this way. The converse: if a complex dynamic system is not expending energy on its self-perpetuation, it will not exist for long. (Many apparent mysteries, like the transparently weak business plans of many a Web 1.0 company, are resolved on realizing that they are not in equilibrium and will perish quickly. And indeed they did.)
Principal 2: "What gets measured, gets addressed." This seems obvious enough, especially to those of us at all interested in organizational dynamics, but principal 1 directs the kinds of things that have to be measured if the system will persist, and principal 2 says that there is always some difference between the measurement, and the totality of the outside world; that is, there is always going to be at least some important information missed, and what is missed cannot be acted upon. Concretely speaking, genes reflect the outside world by establishing sensor networks that interact across the inflection point (the cell membrane, or in the case of multicellular organisms, the body.) Some sensor networks have become very rapid and fine-grained reflections of the outside world - xenobiotic metabolism enzymes (which have reacted in only millennia, and the genetics differ considerably even between groups of humans), adaptive immune systems (which also differ between groups of humans and react in minutes), and of course nervous systems are the paragon.[5] But all of them make sacrifices and do not (cannot) sample all of the possible information available. It should be pointed out that living things do not have to constantly repeat the mantra "what gets measured gets addressed" because that's how they're already built and behave, automatically and obligatorily, as was the case for eons' worth of their ancestors. This is not the case with human organizations, which are new developments in nature, and may not be in equilibrium - so those organizations that you notice do not measure important (survival-supporting) data are unlikely to exist for long either. Whatever corporations or their descendants exist in a million years, it won't be ones that didn't respond to relevant metrics. (Added later: A more generalized description of this process is called value capture, as described by philosophy professor C. Thi Nguyen at the University of Utah. Very briefly, value capture occurs when an individual encounters a group with a simplified, quantified version of their own values, often driven by considerations external to the agent. The additional component relative to "what gets measured gets addressed" is that in value capture, there is feedback from the simplified quantified value system to the individual, distorting and oversimplifying their own values.)
Principle 3: Perception cannot exactly be reality; "this is not a pipe." Representations - measurements - are never the same as the things themselves, and incentives are never aligned perfectly with desired outcomes (almost trivial; otherwise, perfect alignment means identity, that is, the incentives are the desired outcomes.) There must always be a limit on information collected, and inferences are not always correct. There is infinite information a system could in theory collect about the universe (looking for correlations between each datum or set of data), but the system is more likely to perpetuate itself the more the information it collects, and the more impactful the information it collects. It is this design choice by the system to sense survival-relevant data that turns one of infinite facts about the world around the system into a stimulus. Obviously, which things it chooses takes as stimuli - what it measures - are relevant. (Not to mention if the system is in competition, especially with others using the same resources, there are time and resource limitations on the system on how much data to collect before altering its state.) The implication is that there is a limited set of information collected out of all possible information - what the system receives as stimuli - and these stimuli are necessarily very heavily biased toward self-perpetuation.[6]
Principal 4: "Everything that gets measured, eventually gets gamed." This is similarly familiar, and here is where the tension is set up. Systems must perceive (measure) and react to their environment. Their measurements are not the same as the thing in the environment, only a reflection. Because of this, systems react to the measurement - the perception - not the thing that is being measured. This is not a trivial difference. Anyone who has worked at a large corporation or applied to professional school is familiar with this, and we all know examples where an endpoint was achieved in an only-technical, meaningless way that did not advance toward the real-world goal outside the organization that the endpoint was meant to incentivize. To "follow the letter but not the spirit" is an aphorism which expresses this. Case in point: many companies have sexual harassment or racial sensitivity training. These often take the form of instructional videos with quizzes after them. Most people skip and fast-forward through the videos as fast as possible to register as if they watched the whole thing, often having two different types of browsers open so when they get to the quiz they can go back if the answers aren't obvious. Of course this raises the question of whether there are some types of training where the written tests to get the credential have nothing to do with performing the actual work. For example, in the early-to-mid twentieth century, people became scientists because they liked being in labs, were good at organizing experiments, and in general got immediate feedback directly from their work, and therefore performed better, and therefore were recognized for it by peers and superiors, moreso than is the case now.[7] Do the best GRE scores (and administrative maneuvering, and recommendations, and tolerance of modern graduate school politics) really correlate with the best scientists? Or, does the same process produced skilled and caring physicians? (See Paul Graham's essay The Lesson to Unlearn.) For examples in individual humans, take your pick of any of a host of brain receptor-tricking molecules like opioids or alcohol, as well as immature psychological defenses like denial. Cancer is another example. Multicellular organisms have many checks on uncontrolled cell growth and spread, but there is a perverse natural selection our entire lives for cancer. Unlike infection or physical injury, cancer doesn't hurt until it's about to kill you, thanks to both the earlier reproduction of our ancestors relative to the later onset of cancer, along with the black swan of radiation and brand-new-to-nature chemicals that there was never any reason to develop an alarm system for.[5][8]
Another type of distortion has to do with the structure of the system, which effects the way it behaves, rather than perceptions per se. It's long been noticed that corporations become less "nimble" (responsive to market change; ie the relevant universe outside the corporation) as their surface area-to-volume ratio goes down.[9] The higher the surface area-to-volume ratio, the more information that can be collected and the more effective responses can be. Think of bloated giants like big automakers or old engineering companies, where in Dilbert-like fashion people think more about maneuvering in their jobs, coordinating with other departments within the company ("transfer pricing") or competing with other people within the company than they do about their outside-the-company competitors or serving the market. This certainly occurs within states as well, where to various extents for Chinese dynasties, the Roman Empire, and the Spanish colonial empire their downfall was more the result of special interest maneuvering and other intrigues directing attention consistent inward to the court - because what could be going on that's more important outside the palace walls where the barbarians are than inside where the power is? So we have Zheng He's fleet being recalled, Roman patricians scheming in the absence of a succession rule to get legions on your side, or Spanish royalty neglecting overseas possessions until the British and their offspring eat your lunch.[10] There's a final type of distortion which arises from the way that nervous systems save time and money: the more some stimulus-response pairing occurs, the less reward-sensitive it becomes. It moves from being a conscious act requiring effort and concentration, to a habit, to (in biology, programmed through evolution) a stereotyped movement, then a reflex. Once a stimulus-response pairing has started moving down the line it is almost impossible to move it back other than by over-writing it with another stimulus-response pairing.
Principle 5: "Eventually, everything becomes a racket [and/or gets delusional]." This quote is attributed to the late George Carlin. An occult paraphrasing of this in more specifically politics terms is "The state is primarily concerned with itself." Here we can see the full flowering of the problems buried in the earlier principles. There is a constant tension between the need for negative feedback, which the system avoids - that's what aversive stimuli are for - but because the measurement and the thing measured are not the same, the metric is game-able, and the system avoids these stimuli increasingly by gaming them rather than taking real action. (And simultaneously makes un-helpful-to-survival end-runs to pursue positive stimuli.) Consequently the stimulus-response arc gets more and more distorted with respect to the actual longer-term perpetuation of the system. This seems paradoxical in light of #1 above, but because systems are never perfect reflections of the universe around them, they necessarily always react based on at least limited information (especially with respect to long-term consequences) and sometimes with outright distorted information their machinery is feeding them. The necessary self-focus means that these distortions will tend to be in favor of pursuing pleasure; of avoiding pain and believing everything is alright when it is not, and over arbitrary time whatever non-self-perpetuating parts of a system's "purpose" previously existed, will atrophy, and its behavior will become more distorted in favor of comfort and perceived survival over actual survival.[11]
The distortions come not just from "gaming" pain. Organisms can hack themselves to fire off their reward centers without an actual survival enhancement, for example, with heroin, masturbation, or consuming resources they are driven by prior scarcity to consume as frequently as possible, but which have become "cheap" to the point where their over-consumption causes problems, e.g. in humans, fat, salt, and sugar. Opioids are in humans the thing closest to the artificial intelligence problem of "wireheading" where a self-modifying agent given a task can self-modify to be satisfied even though the task is completed.[12] Good examples of rackets are religions and charities that depart from their stated mission in favor of wealth-accumulation and self-perpetuation. (See Givewell's list of charities which maximize their mission rather than their income.) Profit-seeking entities whose products or services intrude into "sacred" (i.e. non-transactional) realms (best example: healthcare) often find that self-perpetuation wins out over their claimed mission. Organizations and individuals can also become delusional - humans are incorrigibly overoptimistic and discount the future.
Principle 6: inherent cyclic crisis. Eventually the stimulus-response arc becomes so distorted that it encounters a survival-threatening problem it can properly perceive and respond to, but by this time the gap between perception and reality is profound and it comes as a shock. Surviving the crisis, if possible at all, is quite painful.
Black swans are indeed one type of crisis, but missing impending black swans is the fault of the system only to the extent that the system could not reasonably have anticipated the black swan event, given the experience it had to draw on. More salient here are crises precipitated by the accumulated distortions in the system's perceptual machinery, where the system "should have known better". At the organizational level, nations might collapse because their ideology, increasingly un-moored from reality, led them to weakness on the battlefield out of refusal to update their armies with modern techniques and technology. Nations with dysfunctional (delusional) organization meet reality catastrophically on battlefields, and religions collapse (sometimes) when encountering reality. Crusades failed due to Christians' belief that God would intervene, medieval Europeans with a military hierarchy based on nobility got crushed by Mongols with rank based on meritocracy, Washington in the Seven Years War lost to the French because he insisted on fighting like a gentleman in rows, then the British lost to Washington in the American Revolution because they still insisted on this formation, and Washington no longer did. (Many of these could be considered examples of the advance of "rational" (and more destructive) warfare over traditional warfare.) For the young Washington and the later British Empire, the losses did not destroy them but came as painful shocks. In the case of many near-delusional Crusaders or the combined German-Polish-Hungarian forces in thirteenth century Europe, the shock did result in their destruction. On the individual level, any delusional or distorted behavior (psychosis, neurotic defenses, substance use) results in a painful shock in the result of adjusted behavior or shattered beliefs, or in some cases, the death of the individual. Someone might underestimate the risk of driving while intoxicated or in inclement weather, and crash, injuring or kill themselves or their family and updating their belief only in crisis. These crises occur more often and faster, the less (or more distorted) the feedback, as illustrated in very centralized arguments from authority (famine under Stalin using very divorced-from-reality - and unquestionable in Stalin's USSR - Lysenkoist theories of biology and agriculture.)
Principle 7: What to do about it? The Last Noble Truth is that cyclic crises are therefore inevitable in any complex dynamic system. As conscious complex dynamic systems called human beings, composed of complex dynamic systems called cells, being members in conglomerations of complex dynamic systems called nations and corporations and politics or religious belief systems, we will occasionally have shocks that kill us, or even when we "wake up" and adapt, still hurt us quite a bit. This happens in national collapses and revolutions as well. In arbitrary time, the problem will always re-emerge. Your measurement is not the same entity as the thing it measures. Unless a system comprises the whole and then there is no boundary, and of course no system.[13] How can we minimize the inherent problems that lead to this cycle?
- Constant testing and cross-checking between senses and expectations. In individuals we already do this automatically (corollary discharge, binding between senses and discomfort when our binding expectations do not match observation.) Cross-checking beliefs and assaying decisions at multiple points in ways that will quickly expose them if they were bad is helpful for individuals; it probably won't hurt to think twice about that turn you just made while hiking in the deep dark woods, even if you feel quite confident about it. Critical thinking is one form of this. Cognitive behavior therapy is another.
- Increasing the amount of feedback. This facilitates the suggestion above as well. It is good to decrease the consequence for objections in groups. Calibrate yourself - when people or organizations have secure egos and want to get better at something - running a mile, or making better decisions - they do this. This experiment about how to fool a computer in a "delusion box" showed that through a constant drive for being surprised - by learning new information - an agent gets out of being deceived faster. Of course this itself is also hackable (the machine could reset itself; you could convince yourself you're learning important new information but really you're just confirming your biases.) Pushing until you reach failure, in physical training or decision-making, is an instrumental rather than epistemic form of increasing your surprise.
- To the extent possible, rely on positive feedback. Negative feedback is that which by definition systems avoid, and they will avoid it by gaming it if necessary. Therefore, systems should put themselves in situations where the ratio of positive to negative feedback is higher, so we are less likely to avoid feedback.
- Simulating negative outcomes. In other words, expect the worst. You will never be disappointed, and you will have prepared yourself for the shock. Negative visualization as proposed in stoicism is a technique to do exactly this.
- Respecting a system's realistically unmodifiable constraints - especially if the system is you. This is especially true at the individual level. Humans as a species are not built to question close family relationships, especially without reason, without becoming depressed and damaging our relationships (asking if your daughter really loves you once a day will not help you or her.) For that matter, negative visualization actually causes quite a few people to reliably suffer rather than feel better (including me.) Constantly second-guessing every decision, like that turn you made in the woods, may erode your confidence and spark depression. Of course, your daughter really might secretly not love you, and your family might die, and you might have made a wrong turn (and you really can't fail without consequence at some things.) But it's probably going to make you suffer more in the long run not to think about this all the time, and you should pay attention to your reactions to see where your thresholds are.
FOOTNOTES
[1] Though not the purpose of this argument, this does set up a useful boundary for defining living and non-living things. Because it's quantitative it doesn't suffer from a problem of boundary cases, and sentience is nowhere considered, but it does appeal to common sense - stars and fire are at one end of the spectrum and things with nervous systems are at the other. Most current electronics are minimally dynamic, which makes them "less alive" than is often argued.
[2] It's implied that these actions are cyclic, like catalysis in biology or the Krebs cycle, or else the system would be unlikely to return to any previous state, and you don't have a self-perpetuating system.
[3] There's a strong argument to be made that defining a system as separate from the rest of the universe is arbitrary. However this becomes less true as the system develops additional complexity for its self-preservation. There is an increasingly sharp inflection point at some physical boundary of the system where the exchange of matter and energy between unit volumes drops, and also where an event on one side of that boundary events have much more impact to the future of the system than events outside of it. That is the self/non-self boundary. In cells this is easily recognized as the cell membrane. In nations, although the boundary becomes more complicated, ultimately the boundary is spatial, because of the primacy of space. Even in corporations or religions this remains the case. The individuals in those organizations, or carrying those beliefs, as physical beings are still dependent on predictability, safety, and resources permitted by more "basic" forms of organization. A good example is the early evolution of life, it is recognized that an RNA molecule (or RNA-protein) would not benefit from any reaction it could catalyze any more than another molecule in its vicinity, or at least not as much as it could if the reaction products were sequestered. Consequently when nucleic acids were enveloped in lipid membranes, natural selection accelerated, and the the self/non-self boundary became less arbitrary.
[4] In a zero-sum setting with limiting resources (which is a necessary condition given arbitrary time) this is a good definition for competition. Unless you count Boltzmann brains, it is likely that a system will find itself in a world with other similar systems.
[5] You may have noticed that there are no examples "below" humans in my examples in principle 4. There are many examples of behaviors in humans, and in human organizations, where metrics are gamed. There are far fewer examples of organisms besides humans where this is the case. Some species of pinnipeds dive deeper than any prey we know of, we think, just to alter their consciousness, and African elephants go out of their way to consume fermented (alcoholic) marula fruit. But there is nothing like the systematic distortions we see in human psychology. It seems likely that the simpler, the more fecund, the faster cycling an organism is, the less it is able to afford having a gap between its response to its metrics and what survival-affecting things are actually occurring in the world. That we don't see many organisms gaming their metrics could occur both because their stimulus-response arcs are simpler, and because a distortion in these arcs will more quickly kill off the organism so they don't come to our attention. This also implies that having a mind as complex and powerful as ours provides unique opportunities for distortions - that organisms which are focused on "survival, unclouded by conscience, remorse, or delusions of morality" (to quote a psychopath fictional android) in fact have a more accurate view of the universe (not incidentally, a central theme of the Alien films.) Having a complicated brain and surviving by imitating each other, our nervous system is constantly hijacked by self-reproducing ideas in a way that our genomes never were (lateral transfer events are incredibly rare) and those memes are selecting, as per principal 1, for their own self-perpetuation; they want to avoid killing us outright, and use us to spread them, so they can be slightly parasitic, occasionally symbiotic, but most are probably merely commensal. If there is an analogy, the meme complexes we get from our families are not genes but rather our microbiome. It should also be pointed out that as we congratulate ourselves for taking over the planet due to agriculture and combustion engines, we are living through the sixth mass extinction, suggesting that in fact we are not acting in our long-term best interests; and like cancer, ecocide might not hurt enough until it's too late, and that intelligence is an evolutionary dead end (a principle 8? That given arbitrary time, an inherent cyclic crisis will eventually destroy an entity, and the more complex the representational system, the more likely the crisis is to be endogenous.)
[6] There is a spectrum of arbitrariness, of how "symbolic" the perceived stimulus is relative to the thing being perceived. In the engineering of signal systems, the closer your signal is in a physical causal chain to the stimulus - the thing it is signaling about, or measuring - the less arbitrary it is. Digital systems are more powerful in many ways than analog systems but they accept increased arbitrariness and complexity in exchange for this. Case in point: people who fear assassination can build elaborate electronic sensing systems to avoid being approached while they sleep, but there are always questions: can they be hacked? What if a component fails? What if the power is out? Can a spy shut it down? Compare this to the system used by the Tokugawa shoguns - sleeping in the middle of of a large room with a wooden squeaky floor with many tatami barriers, and choosing a place to sleep on that floor at random each night.
[7] Of course other things have changed about the way science (and medicine) are practiced over the past half-century, not to mention that all the "low-hanging fruit" in terms of problems accessible to the specific strengths of human cognition may have been picked soon after the Enlightenment started. But it remains a concern that by (not unreasonably) trying to regularize and make transparent the application and career progression process, we're selecting for attributes that have little to do with being a successful scientist or physician, or even selecting against them, because we're using "artificial" endpoints distant from the relevant abilities, which can be and are gamed. Certainly this problem is not unique only to science and medicine, and whatever is causing the phenomenon, it's having real-world economic consequences. An interesting historical study would be to see if the health of the Chinese government across the dynasties waxed and waned with any relation to some aspect of civil service examinations.
[8] Referred visceral pain is an example of an aversive stimuli-sensing system that gives very inexact answers, because it was never important enough to improve. If your arm is hurt, you can point to exactly where even with your eyes closed. But when people get appendicitis, very often in the early phase they point to the center of their abdomen around their belly button, and then gradually the pain moves to the area immediately over the appendix - but only after the overlying tissue, which is innvervated by somatic ("outside"-type nerves) is irritated. Often people with a problem in their abdominal organs or even their heart feel extremely sick and anxious and in general uncomfortable but can't point to any specific spot. Why does this make sense? If a scorpion scrambles up onto your left elbow is stinging you there, it's worth knowing exactly where the stinging is happening so you can act in a way that improves the situation. But if you were sitting around a fire with your tribe in the African Rift Valley 100,000 years ago with appendicitis, what exactly could you do about it? If you had bad stomach pain, it didn't matter exactly where it was; you curled up in a ball where your family members were nearby to care for and protect you and hoped it passed.
[9] In contrast to corporations, single-celled organisms survive best not when they have a low surface-area-to-volume ratio (like successful nimble corporations) but a low one, which is why they are mostly near-spherical. Corporations, while competing with each other and in some ways with their customers, are still operating in an environment that is predominantly cooperative, so it's better to have lots of customer interaction surface. Bacteria exist in an environment of constant unpredictable ruthless lawless natural selection. It's really about how much the surface is an asset for information gathering by the system, versus a liability to attack from competing systems. Consequently, for bacteria, the sacrifice of knowing less about the outside world (which at that scale is less predictable than our world anyway) must be worth it given the overall survival advantage gained by being in the shape that most maximizes distance of any unit volume from the surface. In contrast, there are cells in biology that maximize surface: neurons, and nutrient absorption membranes deep in the GI tract. Both of these exist deep in the organism (especially neurons) in a web of profound cooperation (also especially neurons.) Of course, some bacteria are rod-shaped, which is a higher surface area-to-volume shape thought to confer an advantage in terms of nutrient absorption - when that is the growth-limiting factor rather than attack by other systems, that is the shape we would expect to see. The more fractal a complex dynamic system, the more likely it is to exist in an environment of predominant cooperation. The more spherical a complex dynamic system, the more likely it is to exist in an environment of predominant competition. In the case of corporations, the shape is somewhat "virtual", but corresponds to points of contact per customer and ease of contact, which ultimately are still going to require space. Nations are somewhere in the middle, though it would be interesting to see if nations now, more cooperative and less violent than they historically were, are more likely to have fractal borders, or shared zones (my predictions) than one or two centuries ago.
[10]This corresponds to Level 3 operations as described here, which explain how large organizations work but is not an argument that they should work that way, for Level 3 organizational decisions often lead to the downfall of the organization, unless the inner circle in the super-Pareto distribution has the best interests of the organization at heart. In politics, maintaining the state's best interests happens either because the leaders have a feedback loop in the form of being beholden to an informed electorate as in functioning democracies, or less likely, by luck as with benevolent dictators, e.g. Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, or the "good" Roman Emperors.
[11] There's an apparent conflict here. On one hand I'm arguing that systems become distorted because they're focused on self-perpetuation and ignore metrics. On the other I'm arguing that they focus on the metrics, which they game and become distorted. Both can be true at different times, and vary depending on the aversiveness of different stimuli.
[12] Organisms are exempt from becoming "rackets." Rackets are systems which have a claimed mission besides their self-perpetuation but in fact are only self-perpetuating, and organisms are openly survival systems, full stop, and make no claims to the contrary. In other words, organisms cannot be rackets, because organisms do not have mission statements to deviate from.
[13]It may not have escaped your notice that one implied solution - expand the system until it comprises the whole universe, and there is no self/non-self boundary - is, at least on the individual level, one advocated by many mystical traditions. We actually achieve this when we die, so in individual terms this could be re-formulated as "lose your fear of death". Yet our read-only hardware makes this a terrifying and unpleasant experience, even, empirically speaking, for life-long meditators. For now, this is not a real solution.
APPENDIX: Analogous Terms
| Non-human Organism | Human | Organization | |
| Input | stimulus | perception, belief, representation | measurement, metric, dogma |
| Reflection, Output, Reaction | response | belief, behavior | decision |
| Examples of Gaming | Rare; some higher animals seek out "highs" | Opioids, denial, delusion | Preserving letter but not spirit; false or incoherent religious or political truth claims |
| Examples of crisis | Death | Personal disillusionment or death | Revolution or collapse |